Research
NBER Working Papers | VoxEU Columns | Google Scholar | RePEC | SSRN
Job Market Paper
“Does Government Debt Management Matter? High-Frequency Identification From U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements” with Lorenzo Rigon, 2025 Macro Finance Society Workshop Poster Presentation. Media: MacroMusings Interview 1, MacroMusings Intervew 2, Related Wall Street Journal OpEd.
Academic Economics and Finance Publications
“Management and Firm Dynamism”, with Nick Bloom, Raffaella Sadun, Rachel Schuh, and John Van Reenen, Reject and Resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Economics, SED 2024, New York Fed Liberty Street Economics Blog Post, NBER Working Paper No. 33765, New York Fed Staff Report No. 1157, Harvard Business Working Paper No. 25-052, SIEPR Working Paper, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 20602
“Analyzing Occupational Licensing Across Nations”, with Morris Kleiner, 2026, forthcoming in preparation for Journal of Labor Economics Special Issue on Occupational Licensing
“The Pricing of U.S. Treasury Floating Rate Notes”, with Urban Jermann, Journal of Financial Economics, May 2024. NBER Working Paper No. 27065, ASSA/AFA 2021
“Do Pre-Registration and Pre-Analysis Plans Reduce p-Hacking and Publication Bias?: Evidence from 15,992 Test Statistics and Suggestions for Improvement” with Abel Brodeur, Nikolai Cook, and Anthony Heyes, Journal of Political Economy: Microeconomics, 2024, Volume 2, Number 3, pp. 527-561. IZA Discussion Paper No. 15476, SIEPR Working Paper, MetaArXiv, Advances in Field Experiments Conference 2023
“De-Dollarization? Not So Fast”, with Felix Gerding, Economics Letters, March 2024. See de-dollarization.org website. Media: Marketwatch, Marginal Revolution, National Review
“The Local Residential Land Use Regulatory Environment Across U.S. Housing Markets: Evidence From a New Wharton Index”, with Joseph Gyourko and Jacob Krimmel, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 124, July 2021, previously NBER Working Paper No. 26573, [Data Files], Media: The Wall Street Journal 1, The Wall Street Journal 2, MarketWatch, City Journal, Marginal Revolution, The Economic Report of the President 2020, The Economic Report of the President 2024
“Friedman’s Plucking Model: New International Evidence From Maddison Project Data”, Economics Letters, Vol. 199, February 2021
Book Chapters/Conference Paper Proceedings
“Firm Investment And The User Cost of Capital: New U.S. Corporate Tax Reform Evidence” with Kevin Hassett and Joshua Rauh, NBER Tax Policy and the Economy, 2025, Forthcoming, NBER Working Paper No. 33914. Media: Washington Post, Reason, LA Times, National Review, RealClear Politics, Breitbart News, Marginal Revolution, Civitas Outlook, 2025 White House Council of Economic Advisers Report
“John Taylor (1946-)” with John H. Cochrane and Michael Bordo, The Palgrave Companion to Stanford Economics. 2026, Ed. Robart Cord. Palgrave. Forthcoming
“John Taylor’s Contribution to Economics” with John H. Cochrane and Michael Bordo, A Celebration In Honor of John Taylor, 2025, eds. John Cochrane and Michael Bordo, Hoover Institution Press, Hoover Economics Working Paper No 25113, Princeton Griswold Center For Economic Policy Studies Working Paper No. 346,
“An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies", with Alessandro Rebucci and Daniel Jiménez, Advances in Econometrics, 2022, Vol. 44, Alexander Chudik, Cheng Hsiao, and Allan Timmermann eds., NBER Working Paper No. 27339, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14841, Media: VoxEU, New York Fed Liberty Street Economics, Goldman Sachs Economic Research, 21st Century Monetary Policy by Ben Bernanke
Scientific Journal Publications
“Mass Reproducibility and Replicability: A New Hope”, with Abel Brodeur, Derek Mikola, Nikolai Cook et al., 2024, Revise and Resubmit, Nature, I4R Working Paper Series
Central Bank Publications
“How Firms Spread Good Management”, with Nick Bloom, Raffaella Sadun, Rachel Schuh, and John Van Reenen, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, April 2025
“Mortgage Stress Tests and Household Financial Resilience Under Monetary Policy Tightening”, with Nuno Paixao, Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2024-25, Nov. 2024, Media: Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rodgers Speech at Economic Club of Canada
“Should Emerging Economies Embrace Quantitative Easing during the Pandemic?”, with Gianluca Benigno, Alicia Garcia Herrero, Alessandro Rebucci, and Elina Ribakova, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, October 2, 2020
VoxEU Columns
“Tariffs, The Dollar, and Equities: High-Frequency Evidence From The Liberation Day Announcement”, VoxEU Column, with Alessandro Rebucci, April 15, 2025
“Credible Emerging Market Central Banks Could Embrace Quantitative Easing To Fight COVID-19”, VoxEU Column, with Elina Ribakova, Alessandro Rebucci, Alicia García-Herrero, Jonathan Hartley, Gianluca Benigno, June 29, 2020
Working Papers
“The Labor Market Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence”, with Filip Jolevski, Vitor Melo, and Brendan Moore, Generative AI Research Website Media: The Economist, The New Yorker, Barron’s, Marginal Revolution, AEI, Civitas Outlook, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech on “AI and the Economy”, Macdonald-Laurier Institute Canada Report
“Navigating Higher Education Insurance: An Experimental Study on Demand and Adverse Selection” with Ege Aksu, Sidhya Balakrishnan, Eric Bettinger, Michael Kofoed, Dubravka Ritter, and Doug Webber, NBER Working Paper No. 32260, Philly Fed Working Paper Series, Fed Board Finance and Economic Discussion Series (FEDS), Pre-Registration, ASSA 2024, NBER Economics of Education Fall Meeting 2023, SOLE 2024. Media: Times Higher Education, Marginal Revolution, Biden White House Council of Economic Advisers 2024
“The International Public Debt Valuation Puzzle”, with Matyas Farkas and J.R. Scott, MIT Golub Center for Finance and Policy 12th Annual Conference (2025)
“Predictable End-of-Month Treasury Returns”, with Krista Schwarz, Working Paper, ASSA/AEA 2021
“Recession Risk and Asset Prices: Evidence From Recession Prediction Markets"
“Smooth Panel Local Projections”, with Jackson Mejia. R file for SPLP. Stata file for SPLP.
“Survey Measures of the Natural Rate of Interest”, Mercatus Working Paper, (Data Files current files as of 9/30/2025, published since 2024) Media: Marginal Revolution, MacroMusings, Investopedia
“The Elastic Markets Hypothesis”, with Felix Gerding, Media: Marginal Revolution
“Does Rule of Law Matter For Firms? Evidence From Shifting Political Control in Hong Kong”. Media: City Journal, Marginal Revolution
Books/Notes